How We Found Out That Our Voice Matters Despite Survivorship Bias
…Even When Survivorship Bias Says We’re Just Another Statistic
Photo by Said Bensghir on Unsplash
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The first chapter of Rolf Dobelli’s The Art of Thinking Clearly hit us like a bucket of cold water — because it was right.
Somewhat shocked, Cristof had just put the book down, feeling a despairing sense of deflation. “I expected this to be motivational,” he said. “Instead, it starts with survivorship bias. It just tells us that for every superstar, there are thousands of unseen failures.”
He wasn’t wrong. Dobelli’s opening argument is a sobering one: we see the billion-dollar startups, the viral TikToks, and the Nobel laureates precisely because they survived. They are the statistical outliers. The millions who tried and failed? They vanish from the spotlight, creating a distorted map of reality where success seems not only common but almost inevitable. It’s a cognitive illusion that sets us up for disappointment.
Our initial reaction was a mix of recognition and resistance. Yes, rationally, we knew this was true. But emotionally, it felt like a dream being deferred. If the odds are so stacked against us, why even try?
Immediately, Sophia developed the antidote; because here’s what Dobelli’s clinical explanation didn’t say — and what became our most valuable aha moment: Survivorship bias isn’t a stop sign; it’s a reality check that forces you to define success on your own terms. And in doing so, we discovered two new truths:
That your voice matters more than any statistic.
That the goal is never to arrive but to be on the journey.
The Realization: Finding Freedom in the ‘Bulky Middle’
Stuck between the depressing weight of the data and the burning desire to create, we had a breakthrough. We realized that survivorship bias forces a false binary: you’re either a spectacular success or a total failure. This is the narrative that crushes dreams.
The truth is, there is a vast, vibrant, and fulfilling space between these two extremes. We call it the “Bulky Middle.”
This is where most meaningful work and life actually happen. It’s the landscape of the respected local business owner, the therapist with a full roster of clients, the artist who sells enough prints to fund their next project, and the creator with a dedicated, albeit not massive, following. They may not be on the cover of Forbes, but they are profitable, growing, and making a real impact.
Our own journey with Simple and Aligned is rooted in this middle. We asked ourselves: Is our value solely determined by a subscriber count to be chased? Or is it measured by the one comment that says, “just what I needed to hear today” or “your video helped me decide to get this book and it already changed my life”?
The latter, every time. Success isn’t just about the destination; it’s about the meaning you create along the way; it’s about doing it despite all doubts and giving it your all, whether the project makes it all the way to the stars, “only” the moon, or ends up plunging into the ocean.
In essence, success is about the person you become. The “Bulky Middle” isn’t a consolation prize; it’s the secret haven where authenticity, sustainability, and genuine connection thrive.
Why Your Voice Always Matters (Even in a “Crowded” Niche)
This realization dismantles the other classic trap of survivorship bias: the idea that if something has already been done, there’s no room for you.
We are huge fans of money mindset coach Denise Duffield-Thomas (see if she inspires you too in Chill and Prosper). One of her most powerful teachings is that no niche is too crowded because no one has your unique perspective, your voice, or your story. You’re not there to replace the giants;
you’re there to contribute to the conversation.
Think of it like a potluck dinner. Just because someone already brought a fantastic lasagna doesn’t mean your homemade salad isn’t needed, wanted, and valuable. The table is richer and more nourishing with both.
The survivorship bias would have you only see the lasagna that got the most compliments. It ignores the dozens of other dishes that were equally essential to the potluck’s success.
Your voice is that essential dish. You have a unique combination of experiences, insights, and ways of explaining things that will resonate with a specific group of people — your people. They will find you precisely because you are you, not a copy of someone else.
Practical Tools to Silence Survivorship Bias and Find Your Confidence
Understanding the theory is one thing. Quieting the voice that whispers “the odds are against you” (or something much meaner…) is another. Here are three practical tools we use to think clearly and stay aligned.
Tool 1: The 1% Rule
Stop trying to be 100% as good as the superstar in your field. It’s paralyzing. Instead, focus on being 1% better for your specific audience today.
Ask questions like:
Did you explain a concept more clearly?
Did you create a more engaging thumbnail?
Did you connect with one follower in the comments?
That’s a win. These tiny, consistent improvements compound into undeniable expertise and growth over time. (Remember the life-changing 1% method of Atomic Habits?)
Tool 2: Being Radically Open-Minded
Normalize the struggle. We keep learning, not only from others, but also from our “failures” — the video that flopped, the idea that didn’t get the views it deserved, the collab outreach that fell through.
This didn’t come easy, especially to Cristof. He nowadays admits quite openly that he wasn’t really coachable until he read about radical open-mindedness in Principles by his investment management idol, Ray Dalio.
This practice does two things: it proves that every “overnight success” has a similar list of learning lessons hidden away, and it reframes failure from a mark of shame into a tuition fee for your education.
Tool 3: Micro-Validation
Chase micro-validations, not just macro-virality. Did your post help one person? Did you receive a thoughtful DM? Did you finally implement a system you’d been avoiding? Celebrate it! These small wins are the true fuel for the long haul. They are proof that you are making a difference, right now, regardless of the size of your platform.
The Joy of Showing Up (As You Are)
In the end, survivorship bias is a tool for clarity, not a prediction of your future. It clears away the noise of unrealistic expectations so you can hear your own calling more clearly.
We create not because we are guaranteed to “make it,” but because creating is who we are. The act itself — the process of reading, synthesizing, and sharing nuggets of wisdom — is fulfilling. The aligned action is the reward. Any external success that follows is a beautiful byproduct.
Rolf Dobelli’s The Art of Thinking Clearly gave us the jolt we needed to shed our illusions and build a sturdier, more resilient dream. One that isn’t based on becoming an outlier, but on becoming the most authentic versions of ourselves, serving our audience in the unique way only we can.
Ready to see (and read) beyond the survivorship bias and think more clearly about your own goals? You can grab your copy of the bestseller The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli here.
We’d love to hear from you: What’s one area of your life where you’ve felt the pressure of survivorship bias? How do you plan to redefine success there? Let us know in the comments below!
And if you prefer to watch our raw, initial conversation about this book, you can check out our video here:
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